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Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Soria as a starter?
Jeff asks about Soria. Here’s my response:
Marcel forecasts NO pitcher with at least 162 IP with an ERA of 3.20 or better. CC, Peavy, Santana, Lincecum all come in at 3.22 to 3.25. While one or two of them will have an ERA of better than 3.20, the likelihood is that the average of the 4 will be right around 3.22 to 3.25.
Soria’s forecast, as a reliever is 2.86 (tied with Nathan for #1). The rule of thumb is to add 1 run to convert to a starter (not a hard and fast rule), which puts him at 3.86. That pretty good, putting him around #20 or so as a starter.
A reliever’s leverage impact is twice whatever innings he pitches. So, he has as much impact in 70 innings as a starter would in 140 innings.
Unless you think he is ideally suited for relief, like say Mariano (i.e., his ERA would jump by more than 1 run if turned into a starter), then it’s crazy to keep him as a reliever.
So, that’s the question: is he ideally suited for relief role?