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Friday, August 15, 2008
Situational Hitting and Adam Dunn
Adam Dunn is what WPA/LI was invented for. In 4500 PA, his wins added over an average hitter, given the base/out inning/score opportunities presented to him was +18 wins.
The most similar player to Adam Dunn in terms of OBP, SLG, and PA is JD Drew. In his career, Drew is +25 wins.
Three other players with less PA are: Teixeira (+12 situational wins), Bay (+14 wins), and Miguel Cabrera (+20 wins). If you add up their totals (+46) to Drew’s (+25), and take 30% (to align them to the same number of PA as Dunn), you get +21 wins.
I think there may be something to the fact that Dunn is not a good situational hitter (or that his skillset doesn’t lend itself to good situational hitting).
He’d definitely be a good case study.
Here is the comparison line, as of today:
+18 situational wins, .247 / .380 / .519 Dunn
+21 situational wins, .290 / .382 / .522 Dunn’s top 4 comps (Tex, JD, Miguel, Bay)… situational wins prorated to Dunn’s PA.