from Amazon
Saturday, August 09, 2008
Should players and/or teams try and get pitchers to increase their pitch counts?
We’ve heard that Oakland as a team philosophy tries to teach their batters to be patient at the plate in order to make the pitcher throw more pitches. We’ve heard the same thing from other players and managers, and we consider this approach to be a “sabermetric one” to some extent.
But is it a good strategy? I submit that it is not, and here is why:
First of all, what is the advantage to making the opposing pitcher throw more pitches? We know that the more a starter goes through the batting order, the worse he performs. This “seeing more pitches” strategy does nothing for that. Do we have any evidence that starters tire as the game goes on, over and above the effect of “times through the order?” I don’t think we do. And if a pitcher is going to have a pitch limit and come out of the game no matter what at a certain number, does it matter whether that is in the 6th inning or the 6.1 inning?
Probably not. In fact, if the starting pitcher is an average or worse one, such as a typical #3-5 starter, isn’t it better for the pitching team to have the starter come out as early as possible and have a reliever, who is presumably better, come in? Isn’t that the strategy we are trying to suggest to managers? Also, if you chase a starting pitcher out early, don’t you also increase the number of pinch hitters used by the opposing team in place of the pitcher? Isn’t that a GOOD thing for the pitching team?
Finally, and I think this is the most important thing, let’s assume that batters are using the optimal approach in their hitting, which we have to assume they are at all times. If a coach or manager comes along and tries to get them to take more pitches for the sole reason of making the pitcher throw more pitches, by definition the batter’s approach is no longer optimal, otherwise he would be doing that in first place, in order to increase his production rather than to increase the pitcher’s pitch count, whether or not that helps or hurts his team.
So, to summarize what happens if we make batters take more pitches, even slightly more, in order to increase the opposing pitcher’s pitch count:
1) The starter comes out slightly earlier and is presumably replaced by a reliever who is probably better unless the starter is an ace and the pen is not all that good.
2) The bullpen gets taxed a slight amount, which hurts them over the course of the season, but I think that effect is negligible.
3) The opponent gets to pinch hit for the pitcher a little earlier than they would otherwise, thus reducing the number of pitcher AB a slight amount.
4) The pitcher may or may not be a little more tired as the game goes on. Probably not if all you are accomplishing is getting him our earlier in innings, but at the same pitch count.
5) In getting him out earlier, you actually reduce the number of times he faces the batting order (which is part of the reason why relievers are usually better than starters).
6) You automatically and by definition make the batter a worse batter by altering his approach. If this alteration in approach increases the batter’s offensive production, then he should be using it regardless of how it affects the pitcher and the discussion should be about how to make batters better hitters and not how to force the pitcher to throw more pitches.
After thinking and writing about it, I am 99% convinced that this is NOT the correct approach.
Funny how we sometimes hear about an approach being used by the “smart” teams and we accept it as correct without even thinking about it. Of course I may be wrong.