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Thursday, October 29, 2009
Should Girardi have brought in Coke in the 8th inning versus Ibanez?
I was dozing in and out towards the end of the game, but I did read that Girardi had a chance to bring in Coke but elected to stay with Robertson with the bases loaded, 2 outs, and Ibanez at the plate, score 2-0.
Obviously the following numbers are not presented with anywhere near certainty, but as I always say, better to use a cogent analysis even with “uncertain” numbers then no analysis at all.
Robertson is presumably a very good pitcher, but a RHP one nonetheless. I have his “normalized ERA” projection versus LHB at 3.90, which is decent for a RHP. For Coke, I have his normalized ERA projection versus LHB at 3.68. So Coke appears to be the better choice, but not by much (.006 runs per batter, less than 1/10 of a percent in WE given a LI of 1.00). That is a flip of the coin number. Of course, there are other considerations. In that spot, you are more interested in a pitcher’s OBP against than, say, OPS against, because if you are the Yankees, you simply can’t give up any more runs. And I don’t know which pitcher, including the platoon situation, would be better at that. Let’s just assume that the 3.68 and the 3.90 represent the difference between the two pitchers, such that Coke is the better choice, although marginally so. But…
Ibanez has less than an average platoon ratio over the last 4 years. A lot less. So that gap narrows (between 3.68 and 3.90) and maybe even disappears. Plus, Girardi uses up his last lefty reliever, and his chances of tying up the game rather than winning it in 9 innings is greater. Plus, if Ibanez reaches, the next 3 batters are RH.
So, I think leaving in Robertson was perfectly reasonable.