from Amazon
Friday, June 04, 2010
Sending the runners home
Opposing coach:
“It took two incredible plays to get them. I understand why they were being aggressive. It took two absolute perfect plays to get people so more times than not, they’re going to be safe. It just took two incredible plays.”
If it takes a perfect throw to get the runner out, it was likely that the decision to send the runner home was correct. How often do you get the perfect throw? 10% of the time? 15%? As long as the breakeven point is at least 85%, and you reason that you need a perfect throw to get the runner out, then you send the runner, and you don’t feel bad about it.
I did not see the play, nor have I figured out the breakeven points for the play in question. Someone want to break out The Book and look at the corresponding chart?