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Thursday, September 22, 2011
Ryan Howard: Elite averageness
I like debates where both sides make reasonable points.
Anyway, my opinion as to the reason that Howard is (currently) seen as elite, but should be seen as average: he has had star to superstar seasons in the past, but he hasn’t had those in the last two seasons. There’s a huge difference when you hit 45 to 58 home runs in those star seasons, and when you hit 10 to 15 fewer home runs today. We’re talking about 20 runs of value that has simply disappeared on power alone. That’s 2 wins, and that turns a star player into an average player.
Even relying on the old school stats, Ryan Howard had 136 to 149 RBIs from 2006-2009, and in these last two seasons, he’s down at least 20 RBIs. His runs scored was 94 to 105 in his peak, and he’s down now at least 10 runs scored.
If you look at his wOPS (weighted OPS): from 2010-2011, among the 30 1B+DH with at least 810 PA, he’s #11. So, just on the hitting side among his peers, he’s barely above average. Add in his below average fielding and running, and you have yourself an average player.
He has been very clutch though. And I think that is what keeps his elite status in play (among his supporters, anyway).