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Monday, November 21, 2011
Runs Above Strikeout
Clay starts with all the plate appearances, and removes hits, walks, and hit batters. Basically, he’s left with outs and some form of reaching base on error. He compares the actual change in run expectancy (RE24 on Fangraphs) to what it would have been if the plate appearance was a strikeout (i.e., one out, no runners advance). The leaders and trailers:
Josh Hamilton, Tex 20.1
Derek Jeter, NYY 16.2
Juan Pierre, CWS 15.7
Omar Infante, Fla 15.5
Carlos Lee, Hou 15.2
Hideki Matsui, Oak 14.9
Angel Pagan, NYM 14.8
Ichiro Suzuki, Sea 14.6
Elvis Andrus, Tex 14.5
Alcides Escobar, KC 14.4
...
Brian Bogusevic, Hou -1.3
Matt Domiguez, Fla -1.5
Brad Hawpe, SD -1.9
Brian McCann, Atl -1.9
Pedro Alvarez, Pit -1.9
Matt Wieters, Bal -2.0
Matt Holliday, StL -2.8
Ryan Adams, Bal -3.0
John Buck, Fla -3.3
David Ortiz, Bos -5.1
Because he included reaching base on error, that probably explains Jeter and Pierre and Ichiro. My preference would have been to keep them separate, but, not that big a deal.
You should also note that it’s easier to get a plus than a minus. That’s because, overall, a strikeout is more negative than a non-K out (especially if reaching base on error is included in this category). Typically, a K-out is about .01 to .02 runs worse than a non-K out (again, depending how you handle the errors). Clay shows the team totals, and the average is that a non-K out is 80 runs better for a team than a K-out. That works out to 9 runs per 162 games per player (which is about .02 runs per out), or say about 7-8 runs for a typical regular player. (And you could have figured out that yourself, since the leaders/trailers endpoints are at +14.4 and -1.3, and the halfway point of that is 6.6 runs.) It might be better if Clay readjusts his numbers above to force the zero-point.