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Tuesday, November 03, 2009
Regressing UZR toward the Fans’ Scouting Report
Great work!
Listen, to all you aspiring, and current, saberists: tell me when you do good sh!t like this! I love this sh!t. And any exposure this blog can give you is win-win in my book.
Anyway, back to the study. Not sure why the author would use “rank”, which I presume is the ordinal rank. Why not use the actual score (between 0 and 100) I give out? Minor nit anyway.
If we look at who changes, we see Adam Everett, front and center. However, that is a different case. He was a huge outlier in UZR and then he got hurt. The Fans know this, and UZR doesn’t. At the other end is Juan Castro, and he’s all over the place with UZR. Overall, he’s been pretty high, but these last two years he has not. He’s liked by the Fans (generally, but not for all the teams… 4 teams in 4 years). He’s one of those enigma players, and it’s possible UZR is far more reliable than the fans here. Castro is one of those guys that would be a good test case for further evaluation at the scouting level.