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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Thursday, June 18, 2009

Reader’s Question of the Day, 06/18

The email from the reader:


Say you’re the coach of a high school team in a low-talent, small-school league with no future college players. The outfield fences for each field in your league are 305 feet in the corners and 350 to center - shallow all the way around.

Here’s my radical idea:

Youth and high school teams obviously take their positional alignment cues from the pros and from tradition, and they are naturally very rigid. But what if the correct sabermetric play in a low-level high school environment is in fact to play with five infielders and two outfielders? That’s an experiment I’m considering with one of my future teams.

My rationale:

-Think about the plays that a bad high school infielder couldn’t possibly make. Your shortstop can never make a putout on a throw in the hole. Your 2b can’t throw anyone out moving to his right on the lip of the grass. Obviously, the infield is the exact same size as a professional diamond, but your players don’t have arm strength or range that is anywhere close to that of a pro player. Adding an extra infielder to the pull side of the field would go a very long way toward mitigating the inferior range and arm strength that your infielders have. -In a low-level high school environment, very few high school players can hit the ball to the opposite field with any authority. Your two OFs would shade hard to the pull side. The shorter fences make it slightly less of a problem if a ball gets hit to the wall.

-My hunch is that you’d allow a few more extra base hits, but you’d also convert a much higher percentage of grounders in the infield into outs. And in a low-quality environment, the majority of balls that are hit are infield grounders. I also suspect that converting BIP into outs is even more important in this environment than MLB, due to the scarcity of decent pitching (you only have 2-3 pitchers, max) and lack of strikeouts.

-I imagine this defense would also have a negative psychological effect on the opposition. Opponents might try to hit every pitch to the opposite field, and end up hitting inside fastballs meekly in the infield.

I’d position my fifth infielder just a few feet behind second base, to the pull side. This allows my shortstop to play shallow in the hole, my third baseman to play up on the grass and neutralize the high school (excessive) bunt game, my second baseman to play on the lip of the grass toward first, and my (very unathletic) first baseman to stay home all the time. My fifth IF is also the pivot man on double plays, allowing SS and 2b to play their true positions with runners on base.

Sure, I’d allow a few more triples a year - perhaps even an inside-the-park HR or two - on fluky balls that are hit well to the opposite field. But what if I convert 20% more grounders into outs? What if turn twice as many double plays as I would otherwise? I’d be grateful if you guys could discuss this or post it on the site.

Thank you for your time - you’ve greatly contributed to my baseball knowledge and enjoyment as a fan.

(21) Comments • 2009/06/19 • SabermetricsIn-game_StrategyMinors_College
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