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Friday, June 18, 2010
Reader Mail of the Day: Effect of BABIP on ERA
The biggest argument I get is that Jimenez is better at generating easier to field balls in play, which I could readily believe. The problem is that those same people use that to try and justify the ~1.5 run difference between his ERA and FIP. ... So the question I have is how low would Jimenez’s expected performance on balls in play have to be for him to have an adjusted FIP of 1.2.
Turning a sure hit into a sure out gives you around 0.8 runs. Ubaldo has a 1.15 ERA compared to a 2.93 FIP in 101.1 innings. That makes the difference in runs as 20.
His BABIP is .239 compared to the league average of around .300, meaning his team has given up with him on the mound .061 fewer hits per BIP than expected, and with around 255 BIP, that means around 16 fewer hits, or around 12 fewer runs.
The other 8 run savings is likely tied in with his great performance with men on base (as evidenced by his high LOB% rate).