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Friday, June 19, 2009
Rally’s WAR
I’m just looking at Rally’s WAR database, and here are his totals of WAR for the ten year period 1999-2008, as average per team per year:
15.8 Non-pitcher WAR
8.2 Starter WAR
3.4 Relief WAR
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27.4 Total WAR
I estimated the breakdown of the last two, but combined it is 11.6. So, he allocated 57.7% to non-pitchers and 42.3% to pitchers, which is right around where I have it. The starter-relief split is 70/30, which is too much for relievers (compared to my method). It’s possible that my way to split up his WAR for the swingmen was too primitive to make this 70/30 claim valid.
At 27.4 WAR, he’s putting the replacement-level team at 81-27.4 = 53.6 wins, or .330 win%, which is a bit higher than what I use. 0.330 is justifiable.
The 8.2 WAR for starters sets the replacement level at .420 for starters. I can’t do the same calculation for relievers because of the leverage aspect. The 15.8 nonpitcher WAR sets the replacement level at .402 for the team of nonpitchers, per game.
I use .380 for starting pitchers and for nonpitchers. His relief WAR is likely consistent with my levels.