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Thursday, June 04, 2009
Question of the Day 6-04-09
There are two games, one in the NL and one in the AL. Each team is a conglomeration of players from their respective leagues. Your job, if you choose to accept it, is to tell me how often each team wins each of the two games, if they played each other an infinite number of times. Assume that they play each other on a neutral field or that they rotate home and away. Also assume that offense, defense, base running, etc. “counts.” Assume a league average RHP pitching for each team. Also assume same benches, relievers, etc. So only these starting lineups count.
Part B of this question is, “How often would each of the 4 teams win versus an average team in their league? Again, you only care about the starting lineups below.
Now, you are on your honor and you are not allowed to look up any of the players’ projections or any stats this year or prior. And you are not allowed to use a computer simulator like Diamond Mind or any of the online lineup calculators or anything like that. At the end of the day, if someone like Brain or Rally want to use their projections to tell us their answers, that would be great. For “my” answer, I am using my offensive, defensive, and baserunning projections and running each game through my computer sim.
Here are the two teams and their lineups from the NL. I am flipping a coin to see which team I present first:
The Fontana Fireplugs
Stephen Drew SS
Orlando Hudson 2B
Casey Blake 3B
Carlos Lee LF
James Loney 1B
Eric Byrnes RF
Benji Molina C
Emil Bonifacio CF
The West Jordan Warlocks
Ricky Weeks 2B
J.J. Hardy SS
Milton Bradley RF
Jeremy Hermida LF
Chris Ianetta C
Mark Reynolds 3B
Adam Laroche 1B
Colby Rasmus CF
Here are the AL teams, again, in random order:
Arvada Avalanche
Ichiro RF
Jeter SS
Vernon Wells CF
Griffey DH
Overbay 1B
Lowell 3B
Ellsbury LF
Pierzynski C
Alexi Ramirez 2B
Elgin Elderberries
Denard Span LF
Ben Zobrist 2B
Nelson Cruz RF
Jack Cust 1B
Kelly Shoppach C
Shin-Soo Choo DH
Aaron Hill 3B
Ramon Santiago SS
Franklin Gutierrez CF