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An in-depth analysis of: The sacrifice bunt, batter/pitcher matchups, the intentional base on balls, optimizing a batting lineup, hot and cold streaks, clutch performance, platooning strategies, and much more.
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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Tuesday, June 02, 2009

Question of the Day 06-03

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This one is tricky, so I am going to give away a free copy of The Book to the first person who answers exactly correctly.  If you already have The Book, then I’ll send you a baseball book of your choice.  And if anyone says, “It depends,” you owe me three books! wink

You are managing the last game of your career.  I say that because I want you to know that your decision has no future considerations or repercussions, at least as far as game theory is concerned.

Anyway, it is late in the game, say the 7th inning, the score is tied, there are no outs and a runner on 1st base.  Your next batter, the number two hitter in your lineup, is a decent batter with decent speed and a decent bunter.  Definitely a potential bunt situation.  In fact, I am telling you that it is a potential bunt situation.

Anyway, the opposing manager knows you are an expert strategist.  In fact, he knows or at least thinks that you are an expert in game theory.  Either that or he has no idea what you are going to do and doesn’t suspect that you are either going to bunt or not bunt.

As it turns out, he is an expert in game theory himself.  He positions his fielders accordingly (optimally).  You also know or suspect that he is an expert game theorist.  Of course you have the luxury of seeing where his fielders are positioned before you have to make your decision.  What do you do?  (What is the correct thing for you to do?)


(51) Comments • 2009/06/04 • SabermetricsIn-game_Strategy
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