THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Tuesday, May 25, 2010

PZR for 2010

As some of you know, PZR is the flip-side of UZR.  You simply take the batted ball distribution and the other various characteristics, and give the pitcher that out rate.  Any outs made above this means the pitcher got lucky (over and above whatever luck he may have with the batted ball distribution itself).  That’s PZR.  Ben gives us the list:

The 3 Luckiest
1- Livan Hernandez
Hits Allowed: 40
Expected Hits: 55

Conclusion: Hernandez has allowed 15 fewer hits than expected. Had he allowed 15 more hits, his BABIP would have risen from .183 to .267

...

3- Cole Hamels

Hits Allowed: 60
Expected Hits: 51

Conclusion: Hamels is bound to catch a break at some point. His BABIP of .316 would be 55 points lower if the normally-good Phillies defense had performed well for him.

Good job Ben.