from Amazon
Thursday, August 06, 2009
Pitch f/x and the catcher’s target
Until and unless the pitch f/x data includes the catcher’s target, the data will have limited value in analyzing pitchers and in helping teams to evaluate their pitchers and improve their performance.
Why is that?
Because command is such a key element to pitching success. Here are general rules of thumb:
If you have virtually no command of a pitch or pitches, you will not be successful in the major leagues no matter how good your stuff is. A good example is Joel Zumaya. He throws a 99 mph fastball - almost unheard of. He has no idea where it is going. His choice is either to walk a lot of batters or throw it down the middle and make a lot of location mistakes. Neither one is a good choice, and consequently he can’t get anyone out.
If you have great stuff and a little bit of control, you can be a very good pitcher. Kershaw may be a good example of this. There are lots of pitchers like this.
If you don’t have great stuff and you don’t particularly have good command, you will be a mediocre pitcher at best.
If you don’t have even good stuff and you have little command, then you will pitch in long relief, bounce back and forth between the minors and majors or be out of a job altogether. Lots of examples of these kinds of pitchers. I don’t know - maybe Bruce Chen, Josh Fogg.
If you don’t have very good stuff, you can still be a good pitcher if you have excellent command. In fact, an 88-90 fastball and a decent off-speed with great command is enough for you to be a very good pitcher.
A pitcher with great stuff and good or great command is going to be a very good or great pitcher, of course. Maddux of course had very good stuff (not a fast fastball but a very good change-up and a nice tailing fastball) and phenomenal command. Almost all of your great pitchers have great stuff (even one great pitch is enough, like a Halladay or Webb sinker) AND great command of that and other pitches.
Anyway, the point I am trying to make is that without a target in the pitch f/x data, we’ll never be able to quantify and analyze a pitcher’s command. And without that, we are always going to be missing half of the equation.