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Saturday, July 21, 2007
Pitch Counts from the Old Dodgers
From 1958-1963, here are the pitches per batter of the regular Dodger pitchers:
3.82 Koufax (through 1964)
3.69 Williams
3.51 Drysdale
3.47 Podres
The averge pitcher in the present time throws about 3.75 pitches per batter. So, we can see how these Dodger pitchers are somewhat below the current average. But, is this a function of their strikeout and walk rates, or is there an additional time component?
Baseball-Reference.com has pitches per batter going back to 1988. Why don’t we simply look for the most similar pitchers in terms of BB,SO rate to the above Dodger pitchers, and see if there is any additional differences?
Podres top comps are:
3.80 Milton
3.77 Penny
3.77 Fernandez
3.72 Castillo
3.60 Hudson
3.49 Hurst
As you can see, the guys who have the same BB and SO rates as Podres each threw more pitches per batter: 0.22 pitches more per batter.
What about Drsydale?
3.86 Harang
3.77 Penny
3.73 Millwood
3.73 Mussina
3.62 Oswalt
3.61 Brown
3.44 Mike Scott
This group of pitchers has s similar range to the Podres group, being 0.17 pitches more per batter.
Koufax
4.02 Prior
4.01 Ryan
3.93 Clemens
3.90 El Sid
3.86 Cone
3.78 Beckett
3.73 Nomo
This one is closer to Koufax. This group averaged 3.89 pitches per batter, a bit above Koufax’s 3.82. And there were two similar (to the extent that anyone can be similar to Koufax) pitchers with fewer pitches per batter than Koufax.
Stan Williams:
3.92 Alvarez
3.91 Ortiz
3.82 Benes
3.77 Witt
3.76 Estes
3.75 Juden
3.73 Sanchez
Once again, all pitchers threw more pitches per batter than Williams, average of 3.81, or .12 more than Williams.
Overall, these 4 pitchers threw 0.145 (4%) fewer pitches than their comparable counterparts of 30 years later. Now remember, we already controlled for the pitching style (walks and strikeouts). That pitching style should lead to a certain number of pitches per batter. After all, to get a strikeout, you need the three strikes, plus one or two balls or foul pitches. To get a walk, you need 4 balls, plus one or two strikes, more or less. But, sometimes you don’t end up with a walk or strikeout, but a ball in play. But, the style of pitching that leads to a strikeout or walk will also set the pace for the ball in play. Pitchers who strike out or walk alot of guys will invariably have more pitches on balls in play than those who don’t strike out or walk alot of guys.
It seems however that over and above that, we have an additional component at play. Perhaps it’s the spread in talent, so that the reason the Koufax comparables have more pitches per batter is because they are doing it with guy who strikeout or walk far more than those who don’t.
What will be interesting to see one day is the frequency of each of the 12 ball-strike counts, to see how often Koufax and his comparables entered those states, as well as the number of two-strike fouls. It’s also possible that the recording of pitches from 40 years ago has a source of error. We are only talking about a gap of 4%. To the extent that that’s real, then a 106 pitch outing by Koufax would be 110 pitches if Koufax duplicated his output today.