from Amazon
Monday, February 07, 2011
PECOTA 2011
They have been released.
Colin does something cool and compares a (stripped-down) version of PECOTA to Marcel.... for 1950-2010! And shows both to be in a dead heat. Which is good, because it shows that the core part of PECOTA starts off with a strong base. Presumably all the value-added that Marcel lacks (parks, minor leagues, components and/or comparables) would bring PECOTA up to be better.
The only question is how much value-added PECOTA (and ZIPS and Chone and MGL and Oliver,etc have).
That’s my only role here really, be it with Marcel or FIP or FutureFIP: to provide a baseline by speaking for the common man. So, I love it that Colin used Marcel as he did, as that was exactly what it should have been used for.