from Amazon
Wednesday, March 31, 2010
Peavy: from PETCO to the Cell
Good look from CarsonESPN:
A study by Dan Turkenkopf of The Hardball Times shows us that The Cell and PETCO have HR/FB indices of 118 and 75, respectively. What that means is that if you multiply those numbers by .11 (percentage of all fly balls that become numbers), you discover that about 13 percent of fly balls become homers in Chicago, versus only about 8.25 percent in San Diego.
Carson’s forecast is for .12 HR per IP, or about 21 HR in 175 IP. The FANS have him at 18. Chone and ZiPS are in-between these two numbers.