from Amazon
Tuesday, August 08, 2006
Ortiz, His Clutchiness Holiness
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=ag0oNrarDXIk&refer=columnist_soshnick
Ortiz has hit 21 home runs in 138 at-bats in late-inning pressure situations in the past two years. In that period, no other player has hit more than 13.
http://joyofsox.blogspot.com/2006/08/david-ortiz-in-walkoff-situations.html
Since the end of the 2004 regular season, Ortiz has come to the plate in a walk-off situations 19 times—and reached base 16 times. He is 11-for-14 (.786), with 7 HR and 20 RBI.
In the first case: if we assume .07 HR per PA as his true talent, his 21 HR is 3.8 SD from the mean. If we bump his true rate to .10 per PA, that brings it down to 2.0 SD.
In the second case, if we assume his true OBP is .400, then being 16/19 is 3.9 SD. To bring it down to 2 SD, his true OBP would need to be .620.
As I see it, you can increase his base true talent level up by 50% in clutch situations, and that observed performance would still be 2 SD from his true talent level. A god among men.
We expect 95% of all players to perform within 2 SD of their true mean. So, 20 hitters, just by luck should perform outside that range (10 above and 10 below). At 2.5 SD, we expect 5 such players. At 3 SD, we expect 1 such player. Ortiz is performing at 4 SD from his expected, or less than a tenth of a single player. Given half a century of players, you’ll find one guy above and one guy below this level, by sheer luck.
What is undeniable is that Ortiz has timed his performance for when it matters most. He has one of the greatest clutch seasons of all time last year. And he’s followed that up with something just as striking this year. Whether he timed his performance by sheer luck, or whether he has willed it, or whether the opposing pitchers have quivered in his presence, I don’t know.
Clutchiness. Don’t look it up in a book. You know it in your gut.
The holy trinity of Ortiz, Jeter, and Pujols stand alone. Until they don’t.