from Amazon
Thursday, May 24, 2007
Odds of making the playoffs
There are at least two sites that track daily the chances of each team of making the playoffs. CoolStandings.com even offer two flavors, one the “smart”, and one the “dumb” (presumes a prior of .500 for each team).
The Yanks, as far behind as they are, have a 40% chance using the BP prior (i.e., whatever PECOTA thinks they are), a 30% chance using the Smart Cool Standings prior, and a 15% chance if they were a true .500 team in a league of only .500 teams ("dumb", or more accurately, clueless, prior). The Houston Astros, virtually in the same spot as the Yanks, have a 4% chance according to BP, 6% according to the Smart Cool Standings, and a 15% chance according to the clueless Cool Standings.
It’s a remarkable difference of how much the true talent of a team can impact their chances of making the playoffs, given that they are both equally, and so far, behind. Looks like Clemens picked the right team, between the two.