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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Monday, October 30, 2006

NHL hurting European Leagues

By Tangotiger, 12:24 PM

Here’s a report out of the IIHL, which provides me with a jumping off point. 

I wouldn’t be surprised if we can draw parallels to MLB and non-USA players.  About 25 years ago, the NHL expanded to 21 teams, and almost all players were North American-born.  About 400 of them.  Since then, the European influx has mounted, and at the same time, NHL has expanded to 30 teams.  Result?  Still 400 North American-born players in the league.  The 9 new teams have been, essentially, stocked with European players.  But, how many Europeans should there be?  If you look…


... at all first-round picks over the last several years, or you draw up a list of the 50 best players in the NHL, you will find, basically, that 50% of the best players are from outside North America.  It seems reasonable to me then, that if we have 400 North American players, we should have 400 from the rest of the world, and not the 200-250 that exist.  Why the disparity?  My guess is that teams would prefer to fill in their 3rd and 4th line players with local boys, rather than worrying about the language barrier and extra costs that European players come with.  I’d even expect fewer scrub players from Quebec than from Ontario, relative to the number of star players from those provinces.

Does this exist in MLB?  I don’t know, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it did.  My guess is we don’t have many scrub Dominicans.  Does this also apply to Blacks in MLB?  If we were to believe the lastest MLB awards, all the scrappy players in the league are white.  I’d love to see the issue researched.

(7) Comments • 2006/11/02 • SabermetricsTalent_DistributionOther SportsHockey
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