from Amazon
Tuesday, January 16, 2007
NFL Draft Slotting
Phil Birnbaum points to an article here with a cool chart that assigns a value to each draft slot. If you work it out, it basically becomes a logarithmic function that looks like this:
value of 1st pick is: EXP(7.5) = 1939
value of 2nd pick is: EXP(7.5*.995) = 1867
value of 3rd pick is: EXP(7.5*.995^2)=1798
Or, in short: EXP(7.5*(.995^(pick-1))), where EXP() is the Excel function, which is a constant close to 2.718. The ln of e = 1.
It works well except for the first 3 or 4 picks, as the NFL gives a premium over and above this quick function. Whether the NFL is right, or the quick function is a better tool, is subject for someone else to research. In any case, I prefer quick functions to carrying around a table with 224 entries.
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Rany also had a wonderful series of articles last year on Baseball Prospectus. Philly over at Sons of Sam Horn also had a sensational set of articles.