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Monday, September 03, 2007
Ned Yost and the Brewers
Lots of Brewer fans have been calling for Ned Yost’s head all season, from what I can tell, even when they were winning at the beginning and in the middle of the season. Of course more and more fans have been doing so since their recent slide. (I won’t get into how really, really stupid it is to blame a manager for a winning or losing “streak” nor even how weak the relationshiop between a manager’s ability and a team’s w/l record for a whole season MUST be - one of many reasons why the MOY award is a joke.)
Last night’s game was a real heartbreaker for Brewer fans. They took a 7-4 lead into the 8th inning after being down early 3-0 with Oswalt and Sheets on the mound. Anyway, they blew the lead in the 8th and after a series of pitching changes, a lot of fans are really, really p-o’d at Yost. Should they be?
Here is what happened. Turnbow, the Brew Crew’s setup and 8th inning man, came in at the top of the inning and gave up 2 walks and a single and the bases were loaded with 1 out. Now, for a MLB pitcher to walk TWO batters with a 3-run lead in the 8th is unconscionable, but hey - shizit happens. A lefty came up to bat. Yost brought in Shouse, who is clearly a LOOGY. The Stros pinch hit Biggio who flew out to right, scoring a run and leaving runners at 1 and 2 with 2 outs. Now here is where some Brewer fans went nuts. Yost brought in Greg Aquino, who was just recalled from AAA. He hadn’t pitched in the majors since April I think. Pence was due to bat. Yost brought in Aquino to get the platoon advantage.
Most fans thought that Yost should have left Shouse out there who has pitched well against both righties and lefties this year. Some fans thought he should have brought in another righty. The really smart ones, of course, thought that he should have brought in his closer to get 4 outs, or maybe just one if the Brewers should score a couple more runs in the bottom of the 8th.
What should he have done? First, let me say that I think that Yost is a smart manager. I don’t know that, but rumor has it that he purchased The Book. Whether he read it or understood it is another story. After the game, when asked about brining in Aquno, all he said was that he wanted to get the platoon advantage because Pence hits 70 points better versus LHP. Even though he made the “mistake” of quoting a relatively small sample of stats (what if Pence had hit better this year versus RHP, which is entirely possible?), he was on the right track.
In fact, Shouse is a classic LOOGY. He throws from an extreme sidearm angle and has a gigantic platoon split over his career. Even with regressing those career stats to some mean (the mean of LHP who throw from the side), he is definitly an extreme LOOGY. You do NOT want him to EVER face a RHB if you can help it. So Yost was 1000% correct in taking him out, regarldess of how he has done this year versus RH and LH batters (actually he has a large OPS against platoon ratio this year as well, which I am sure Yost is aware of).
Now, Aquino is not a bad pitcher according to his minor and major league stats, and I am not one to start talking about the value of experience in terms of high pressure performance, but that was a high pressure, high leverage situation, and the Brewers are in a pennant race. I am not sure I would have brought in Aquino, just up from the minors in that situation, and I am not sure too many managers would have either. And I am perfectly understanding of the fans who were and are livid. (BTW, with 2 strikes, I think a 2-2 count with a base open after someone threw a wild pitch, he threw a fastball right down the middle to Pence - and I mean RIGHT down the middle - who drove in both runs with a triple.)
Actually, I would definitely not have brought in Aquino regardless of how I felt about his inexperience (I definitely would have used him rather than Shouse if I only had those 2 choices). The clear, 100%, 1000% choice in that situation, as I mentioned earlier, is to bring in your ace, Cordero (the GOOD Cordero). He is a RHP and one of the better closers in baseball. As smart as Yost may be, and despite the fact that he may have read The Book, he apparently does not like to bring him in other than in the 9th, in save situations I presume. That is rather odd. There are plenty of other managers who ocasionally bring their closers in for 4 outs or even more. Unfortunately, no one asked him in the post-game press conference why he did not bring in Cordero. I guess most of the media also thinks that aces are only for the 9th inning.
And BTW, Cordero was available and had plenty of time to warm up.
One other thing. In the 8th, he brought in Turnbow to start the inning because that is his role. Now, Turnbow is a decent short reliever (once overrated as many hard throwing but high walk pitchers are), but in order to leverage his talents you probably want to bring him in when you don’t mind a walk and you wouldn’t mind some strikeouts. To start an inning with a 3 run lead is probably NOT the best time to use him. A pitcher should NOT walk anyone let alone two batters in the 8th inning, up by 3 runs. But Turnbow does not have much control. He is a high walk, high K pitcher.
Anyway, I though that the fans had a legitimate beef, but for many of them, actually most of them, who wanted to leave in Shouse, for the completely wrong reason (other than NOT bringing in Aquino).