from Amazon
Monday, March 23, 2009
Nate McLouth, sabermetrician
NM: ... I’m going to steal more bases....
DL: Why are you going to steal more bases? I know that your success rate has been very high.
NM: That’s why. That tells me that if my percentage is that high, I need to run more. Whatever my percentage is, 90-some percent… let’s say, just for the sake of examples, that it’s 95 percent. If I can steal six or seven more bases in a year and be at 90 percent, I think that’s more effective.
Yes, exactly correct. You never ever want to have a stolen base percentage that is “too high”, unless you already run alot. For example, Tim Raines steals 70 bases and gets caught stealing 9 times. It’d be a bit hard for him to steal even more bases. There’s also a point where you don’t want to beat up your body so much. Carlos Beltran for example has a stolen base % that is “too high”. He could be more effective if he can try to steal more. But, then do you want that kind of player using up his body more like that? So, {clap clap clap} to Nate.
But, my about-to-be-hero also had to say this:
There are so many variables to take into account, like the depth at which you play, the park that you play in, the surface—grass is different in different places.
Gee, that sounds like what Jeter has said in the past. Do they all get the same talking points memo? These guys would be wonderful on Fox “News” when they retire. Nate, Nate, Nate… your opponents ALSO plays in the same parks you play. And yet, they get to balls you don’t. I will grant Nate the positioning aspect when he says:
Oh yeah, there’s absolutely no question about it. I play shallow. That’s something we talk about every day in here. The percentage of balls that are hit shallow, and fall in, is a lot higher than the percentage of balls that are hit deep and get over a center fielder playing at normal depth. I play probably as shallow, if not shallower, than anyone else in the league. And that’s not saying anything good about me or anything, it’s just the way that the coaching staff prefers that I do it.
So, when we talk about the fielding talents of players, we need to know about positioning, and we cannot (necessarily) blame the player for his poor positioning.