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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Tuesday, August 03, 2010

Morgan Ensberg asks…

These:

Why is the season 162 games long?  Don’t forget that Spring Training is a month and a half as well.

That’s easy: that’s the optimal point to match supply and demand.  Or in corporate talk: that’s the most MLB and MLBPA can extract money from fans.

Did the Astros really trade Lance Berkman and Roy Oswalt?  I never thought Drayton would do it.

You are loyal to whoever is giving you money, not to whoever you are giving money to.

Why does the All Star game give home field advantage in the World Series?  Must be a ton of money.

Marketing.  Not to mention that without a game 7, there is actually no home field advantage.

I definitely don’t like back-loaded deals for teams.  That just makes it more difficult for teams to deal a guy if he stinks in a couple years.

No it doesn’t.  Suppose the Astros signed a 3-yr deal with Morgan Ensberg for 1MM$, 1MM$ and 22MM$.  And just before that third year, he gets hurt.  Well, would it have helped if the Astros gave Ensberg 16MM$ in the two years prior, rather than 2MM$?  If it did, then just take the 14MM$ that they saved and give it to the team that would take Ensberg.  It’s the same thing.  Read this:
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/the_fallacy_of_paying_too_much_for_out_years/

How come Adam Dunn is a trade target in the media every single year of his existence and he never gets traded?

Fans don’t trade clutch hitters, and to a fan, a clutch hitter is someone who puts the bat on the ball.  An excessively patient hitter, regardless of how effective he is, will always look like someone who you won’t miss.  Fans love Vlad.  They don’t care for Dunn.

Why is base running so terrible in the big leagues?

Chicks dig the long ball.

Why do teams play “no doubles” defense late in the game when they are winning by 1 run.  Doesn’t that give the offense a better chance to get a base hit?

It does give them a better chance at one base, at the expense of fewer two-base hits.  It’s one of those things that is a close call, and so, you need to work out the break-even points.  From the studies I’ve seen, it seems to not be a big deal whichever way you go.

How come Joe West is always on Sportscenter?

I love what the MLB Network does with their highlights: just the games, the sounds of the play-by-play guy, and action.  When they go to the gasbags on parade, I zone out very fast.  I just want to see baseball, not gasbags.  Speaking is not analysis.


(9) Comments • 2010/08/04 • SabermetricsMediaMLB_ManagementPlaying_Approach
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