from Amazon
Friday, May 07, 2010
Max on Clutch
Interesting what he did here. He ranked all the PA by LI and all the PA by run value, and then ran a correlation between the ordinal rankings of the two.
I suspect that it would be almost impossible to get a high correlation. For example, say that someone actually did have a true talent level that perfectly correlated to LI. What kind of sample performances are we going to get? For example, say that someone’s true wOBA goes from .450 to .250, from LI of 10.0 to 0.01. What sample wOBA are we going to get at LI=10.0? Well, the mean is going to be .450, but the observed can be anything, even a strikeout.