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Monday, June 26, 2006
Matt Clement, Bad or Unlucky?
Protrade, which embraces sabermetrics in its game, looks at Matt Clement, and sees a pitcher who is unlucky, rather than bad.
It seems that Protrade looks at each play, one at a time, and assigns a probability that the ball would have been caught or not, if there was an average fielder there. In essence, PZR (the pitching equivalent of UZR). I don’t know how well the system does, but it is interesting.
The numbers are hard to believe, however. I have a quick system that was inspired by GuyM at Fanhome, which, for lack of a better term, I call szERA (strike zone ERA). It’s simply 5.40 - 12 * (K minus BB per BFP). His 43 K to 38 BB is pretty abysmal, and if you include his 6 HBP, you can see how he’d come in at worse than an szERA of 5.40.
I’m all for PBP data, and it would be highly interesting if Clement has in fact been pitching so well on balls in play, that his “adjusted” ERA should be where Protrade says.
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In other Protrade articles, they have a plan to handle park factors, specifically, Fenway. I love graphs, and this one is certainly worth its weight in pixels.
And this is for outfield throwing arms.
Feel free to make this the PROTRADE thread, and add your favorite links in the comments (just put the link in the “website” field.