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Wednesday, November 15, 2006
Market Value
Free agency is not “market value”. The market is made up of free agency, and arbitration-eligible players and slave wages. Just because the free agent price is 4 million$ per marginal win (i.e., an average player who is a free agent would make 8 million$, plus an extra 4 million$ for every win above average) does not mean you have to pay for that. Here’s everything I wrote on a recent USSM thread discussing Richie Sexson:
Sexson, from 2002-2006, is about +2.5 wins above the average league hitter per 150 games, meaning +1.5 win above the average 1B.
According to the Fielding Bible, for 2004-2006, Sexson ranks 31st among 1B out of 36, but he was 10th for 2006. If we were to believe Fans, they see Sexson as a step below the league average 1B. Let’s call him -0.5 wins as a fielder, relative to the average 1B.
So, Sexson would be +1.0 wins above the average 1B. Each win is worth anywhere from 2 million per win to 4 million per win, depending if you look at it from the true open market, to the current MLBPA-imposed limited supply and excess demand. So, he’s worth 2 to 4 million$ more than the average 1B.
The average starting B should be 5 million$, but is likely in this market more like 6 or 7 million$.
Giving him all the possible breaks, treating 2002-2006 as his forecast going forward, with no decline from aging, 11 million$ is the most you can argue for him. In reality, he’s probably worth 7 million$.
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As for the “guaranteed run” of the HR: yes, it’s true. And, it’s built-in to BaseRuns and the Perfect Run Modeler. The only way to work is to weight every event a certain amount. From 1999-2002, the win value of the HR was +.123 wins. And, as has been shown many many times by me, the run value of the HR is fairly constant at +1.40 runs, regardless of run environment. That’s reality.
If you want to argue that GMs overweight HR, so that instead of +.123 wins, they give it +.160 wins, fine. That doesn’t mean you have to overweight it too.
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I have 177 USSM readers who told me that he was a somewhat below average fielder:
http://www.tangotiger.net/scouting/pos2006_1B.html
It really doesn’t matter what I, Dave, or someone else’s single opinion says. A group of 177 hardcore Mariner fans will trump any single one person, unless that person is a pro scout who is focused on watching Richie Sexson make a few hundred plays.
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As for the park factor for HR at Safeco: according to the 2007 BJ Handbook, there were 487 HR hit in Safeco, and 525 hit on the road when the Mariners were played. The PF was a “93″ (i.e., 7% less HR in Safeco than other parks). And the HR-PF for LHB? 93. RHB? 93.
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I was referring to opinions, not facts.
Even “the audience” would be wrong sometimes on “Who Wants to be a Millionaire”.
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And, just to be argumentative and irrelevant to my point, I think 200 college chemistry or physics students would give us an answer that is clustered near the truth, and 200 political science students can tell me who was the x-th president of the US.
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taro, if you were to make everyone a free agent, where do you think Richie Sexson would rank among 1B?
There are two arguments:
1 - Is Richie Sexson an average to +1.0 wins above average 1B, or is he a +3.0 to +4.0 wins above average 1B?
2 - How does the market pay for that kind of player?
So, answer the first question first. Go through the 30-40 regular 1B/DH, and tell me where Sexson ranks, and then let’s continue.
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I’m sure there’s contamination, and that’s the case for any kind of survey that requires someone’s opinion.
The key is to construct the survey so that the responder focuses on components, rather than an overall assessment. Survey don’t ask you if you are a “Type A” personality, but rather ask you 30 or 50 questions, of which an overall assessment determines if you are Type A or not.
While I would have loved to ask 20 questions instead of 7 for each fielder, that wouldn’t be possible if I want the volunteer readers to participate.
Whether Sexson is truly below average for a 1B, who really knows. But the evidence, however tainted by both observers and the data, does show that. It’s up to the reader to determine whether to convict on that evidence. But, certainly, a single observer’s opinion is almost completely worthless, since I have no way of knowing if that observer was in a sensory deprivation chamber or not (unless that Mariner fan is Michael Jackson).
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Terry/119 is spot on. Get rid of him if you can. Should be easy if you have a house worth 25 million$ with 24 million$ mortgage to find someone else to send you a piece of property worth 9 million$ with an 8 million$ mortgage.
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“Market” value: to the economists in the group, the free agent market is not the only market, and that’s the difference between the real world and baseball. You can do what Terry/119 is suggesting, and trade Sexson for guys still in the slave-wage market. The choice to avoiding the free agent market is that you can concentrate on player development.
Look at the Marlins. They had three bona-fide rookies of the year this year, and the ROY was… gasp… traded for, by giving up… gasp … Sexson-like players who were… gasp… fair (free agent) market value, but overpriced in an overall (free agent + arb-eligible + slaves) market. The Expos and many small-market teams operate in this manner.
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Repl/average: there’s no reason at all to talk about replacement level. I’ve already said that Sexson is +1 win above average 1B. Go back to my post 90.
In any case, an average player is +2 wins above the replacement level player. But, you can’t just say “ok, 4 million per win x 3 wins = 12 million”. That only makes sense if the free agent market is your only option (meaning, you are the Yanks, Mets and Redsox).
As Dave and Derek are trying to hammer, you don’t have to go to one place, if you have a chance to go somewhere else. And, getting a +1 above average 1B does NOT require you to go to the free agent route.
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Did you not see my post about park factors? Instead of asserting how Safeco affects various hitters, how about some statistically significant numbers to back you up?
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Sexson’s free agent price is 12 mill per year. That’s *not* the market (FA+arb+slave) value for a +1 win above average 1B. Pujols free agent price would be over 40 million per year! If it came to that, I’d trade Pujols for an entire farm system.
Free agent price does not equal market value.