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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Tuesday, August 08, 2006

Liriano, meet Earl Weaver

By Tangotiger, 09:47 AM

http://www.startribune.com/509/story/600949.html

“He just came off the mound [after the fourth inning], and we asked him how he’s doing,” Gardenhire said. “We said, ‘Are you OK?’ And he wouldn’t really give us any definitive answer.”...His fastball reached 96 miles per hour and, with his wicked slider working at times, he notched five strikeouts.  “I couldn’t even throw the fastball, slider, changeup, anything,” Liriano said. “It bothered me every pitch I threw.”

It’s understood, isn’t it?  That when…


... a pitcher doesn’t emphatically say he’s feeling good, that he’s feeling bad?  No MLB pitcher will say “Take me out, coach.” Nevermind the 96 mph fastball, or the five strikeouts, or the TEN hits allowed, or that 69% of his pitches were strikes.  Even if it was five hits, or one hit, if the guy is in that much pain, that trumps all.  This is where scouting is important.  Trying to make sense of the performance of facing 21 batters pales in comparison to how a pitcher is actually feeling.

This wouldn’t have happened under Earl Weaver’s watch, because Liriano would not have been starting that game.  Or just about any game this year.  Take a look at Dennis Martinez:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/martide01.shtml
Scott McGregor:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/mcgresc01.shtml
Wayne Garland:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/g/garlawa01.shtml
Mike Flanagan:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/f/flanami01.shtml
Mike Boddicker:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/boddimi01.shtml

See that pattern?  Start him in the bullpen, and then work him into the rotation.  Unless he’s 24/25, at which point, you can get him into the rotation right away.

Even look at the toughest pitcher around, Nolan Ryan:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/ryanno01.shtml

Ryan was 24/25 when he took his place in the rotation for good.

Of course, you can throw a Tom Seaver or Greg Maddux to spoil my case.  Are they the exception that prove the rule?  But, is there any doubt that we really need to be careful with pitchers in their rookie year in their early 20s?

The manager that handled this guy did a great job of following the Earl Weaver principles:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/santajo02.shtml

Why couldn’t the Twins have him as manager instead? 

Oh.

(31) Comments • 2008/07/29 • SabermetricsPitchers
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