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Friday, June 05, 2009
Linear Weights by Strike Zone
Max is at it again. Here’s one of his many charts, which focuses on the horizontal location of the curve ball, and what its run value is:
The smaller the number (the more toward the left), the better for the pitcher. So, if the pitcher is looking for a 10-inch vertical zone to throw his curve ball, he should throw it in the center. But if he does that, his margin of error is very very small at the top end. If you expand that to a 20-inch vertical zone, then it’s a bit above the center, to below the knees (outside the strike zone). The “hanging” curve ball that is often mentioned (a strike, but hitting the top of the strike zone) is equivalent to throwing a curve ball halfway between the knees and the ground. That’s how bad it is to hang one.
By the way, those run values don’t make any sense to me. The average run value of a called ball is something like +.08 runs (and the called or swing-and-miss strike as well, but negative). But, a curve ball thrown right in the dirt, according to Max’s chart, is worth +.02 runs. This means that batters must be swinging at ALOT of curve balls in the dirt, something like 35% of the time. Doesn’t sound right at all.