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Tuesday, January 17, 2012
Lincecum will lose his arb hearing
Lincecum is 3rd-year arbitration-eligible. Even if he was 4th-year arb eligible, there’s no way he could get what he’s asking.
If you look at the pitchers who are as good (or arguably better), meaning Verlander, Weaver, JJ, Felix among his contemporaries, or going back to other pitchers (who were never free agents), Lincecum simply does not stand above them. These guys made about 13-14MM$ in their comparable year. Lincecum does have the two Cys, but they were more than two seasons ago.
He should consider himself lucky the Giants offered him 17MM.
In 2010-2011, among pitchers with at least 400 IP, he’s 10th in ERA. Among pitchers who are arb-eligible (ignoring that FA years have been bought out), we have ahead of him: Felix, Justin, Matt Cain(!), and Cole Hamels.
Even if you go back for a three year look (2009-2011), among pitchers with 600 IP, he’s 4th in ERA, right between Felix and Matt Cain(!).
There’s no way the arbitrator is going to listen to stats over the previous four years.
In terms of comparables, basically, 14MM$ would be the arbitrator award. The Giants went to 17MM$ (presumably because they paid him so much last year to begin with, at 14MM$). They bumped him up 20% (which, IIRC, is the minimum bump right? can’t remember right now).
Lincecum will sign for 17MM$, and maybe 20MM$ for his last arb-year.