THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Limited usefulness of batting average

Patriot:

Here are three AL players:

BA OBA SLG
.223 .326 .393
.225 .319 .400
.275 .326 .400

Some people still believe that if you have two players with equal OPS, but one has a higher BA, that the one with the higher BA is more valuable. They believe this despite the fact that more sophisticated run estimators show them to be of nearly identical value, with an edge for the lower BA if anything (with the caveat that we are considering a normal environment in the modern major leagues). This is illustrated by these player’s RGs, which are 4.45, 4.51, and 4.43 respectively. Not that I intend this to prove anything, but the player’s (R + RBI)/Out are .32, .33, and .31 respectively. (R + RBI - HR)/Out are .29, .28, .27.

You should always remember that if you have identical OPS but varying BA, the player with the lower BA has a better combination of secondary skills. Incidentally, the players are Brandon Boggs, Gary Sheffield, and Billy Butler.