from Amazon
Friday, July 14, 2006
Leverage Index, By Base/Out States
These numbers represent the leverage of the situation, looking only at the base/out states. For example, when the bases are empty and no outs, the leverage of the situation is 0.87, which is just a bit below average (of 1.00). With 2 outs, the LI is 0.39, meaning that very little damage can happen in that situation. I’ll call this the boLI.
boLI 1B 2B 3B Outs
0.87 -- -- -- 0
0.58 -- -- -- 1
0.39 -- -- -- 2
1.52 1B -- -- 0
1.20 1B -- -- 1
0.84 1B -- -- 2
1.28 -- 2B -- 0
1.21 -- 2B -- 1
1.13 -- 2B -- 2
1.33 -- -- 3B 0
1.09 -- -- 3B 1
1.25 -- -- 3B 2
2.09 1B 2B -- 0
1.86 1B 2B -- 1
1.55 1B 2B -- 2
1.91 1B -- 3B 0
1.77 1B -- 3B 1
1.81 1B -- 3B 2
1.34 -- 2B 3B 0
1.73 -- 2B 3B 1
2.14 -- 2B 3B 2
2.46 1B 2B 3B 0
2.44 1B 2B 3B 1
2.74 1B 2B 3B 2
The typical bases loaded situation is about 2.5 times as impactful as the average situation. This is why, for example, when you look at the bottomg of the 3rd inning, with bases loaded, no outs, and the batting team behind 1 to 4 runs, that the LI is around 2.5.
http://www.insidethebook.com/li.shtml#6
It’s not because of the inning/score so much, but rather, the base/out situation. If you look at the LI chart of bottom of the 3rd, no outs, and batting team down by 3 runs, you will see that this pretty much conforms to the LI based on the base/out state. This implies that this situation is pretty average.