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Thursday, August 12, 2010
Latest Replacement Level thread
Jeff weighs in. His thought process is right on. I just don’t know if the end-result is any difference.
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To reply to Peter in the comments of that thread: I agree. Suppose someone is +30 as a RF. What would he be as a CF? Would you believe +30? If you took all the RF and moved them all to CF, they’d each get 33% more chances. So, the +30 RF becomes +40, and the -30 RF becomes -40. Now, suppose that you leave the +30 RF in CF, and restore all the other CF back in CF. Those guys are good. His +40, compared against all the other RF in CF will drop down to +30 when compared to the real CF. Had you instead left the -30 RF in CF, he would come in at -50 in CF.
Here’s a very very old article on the subject. It’s worth a re-read (though don’t pay too much attention to the numbers, as things have been revised since then).