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Thursday, November 03, 2011
Joey Votto or Matt Moore?
This trade proposal from Dave had spurred some interest in the comments and elsewhere.
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Now, I do NOT want to talk about Dave’s plan specifically, not the least of which is because it involves the Mariners. But, we can talk about something along those lines. Let’s consider a 1-1 trade proposal (so we don’t waste time talking about the value of roster spots). And we’ll talk about Joey Votto, one of the best players in baseball, and Matt Moore, perhaps the best pitching prospect in baseball.
Here are my questions: you have Joey Votto for two years, and you are going to get two compensation picks in the draft once you let him go. What you are willing to pay for two years of Votto and access to those two picks? 70MM$? Give me a range too. Imagine that in the second half of 2011, he tanked, or that in the second half of 2011, he Bondsed-out. Now what are you willing to pay for him? 40MM$ to 80MM$? Something like that?
Now, what of Matt Moore? Highly rated entering 2011, Minor League Pitcher of the Year for 2011, tantalizing end-of-season start to his career (including playoffs). You get him for six years (and let’s say you get one comp pick for him). What are you willing to pay for him? If the stars align, maybe you give him what Sabathia and Lee and Jered Weaver get, so 130MM$. Of course, there’s always a certain level of uncertainty with guys with limited to no experience, not to mention he’s a pitcher. What’s the downside for him? 30MM$? So, maybe you’d realistically pay 70MM$ for him?
Let’s say this is where we are at: you are willing to pay Joey Votto 40MM$ - 80MM$ (average of 70MM$), and you are willing to pay Matt Moore 30MM$ - 130MM$ (average of 70MM$).
Now, let’s say that Joey Votto WANTS 26.5MM$ for those two years, and Matt Moore WANTS 26.5MM for those six years. Take as an assumption of fact everything I have said above.
Which of the two do you sign for 26.5MM$? Votto for 2 years, or Matt Moore for 6 years?