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Wednesday, December 23, 2009
Javy Vazquez for… that’s it?
That’s the prevailing reaction, I presume. Vazquez, a top 20 starter, for Cabrera, a “4th” outfielder. Cabrera however is actually an average outfielder. He’s slightly below average as a hitter, and slightly above average as a fielder, at a slight premium fielding position. He’s an average player.
More importantly is that you are not trading Vazquez for Cabrera, but Vazquez and his contract for Cabrera and his contract. It makes a huge difference. Imagine you have a 14MM$ real estate property (great!), with 11.5MM$ of mortgage on it (ouch).
Melky is a 3+ service player, which means he’ll get say 2MM$, 4MM$, and 6MM$ in the next 3 years in arbitration. That’s a 12MM$ mortgage, basically a match for Vazquez. If Melky can match in 3 years the win output of Vazquez in one year (3.5 to 4.0 wins say), then you have an even swap. An average player will get 1.5 to 2.0 wins his first year, and he’ll lose 0.5 wins each subsequent year. So, after 3 years, he’ll get you 3.0 to 4.5 wins. The same as Vazquez!
Vazquez AND his contract is like Melky and his potential contracts squeezed into 1 year. On top of that, the Braves get prospect Vizcaino too. Obviously, if this deal is fair, then Cabrera must be considered a below-average outfielder.
Think of trades in terms of the net asset value (value of player minus the mortgage on that player). Many of these trades will make sense.