from Amazon
Tuesday, August 16, 2011
Jacoby Victorino
Or: how much is 26 games worth in wins?
If you follow wins above average, then 26 games is worth a bit less than 1 win.
If you follow wins above replacement, then 26 games is worth a bit more than 1 win.
(The gap between the above two is 0.36 wins.)
If you believe that missing a game means that you should get zero credit for your replacement player, then 26 games is worth 2 wins.
My guess is that most people don’t really believe the replacement-level model. I think most people think of it that if you don’t play, then it’s like you are leaving your team shorthanded. And I think that’s why the games played is going to be a huge penalty against Victorino.
To be more clear: the replacement-level model essentially means that you are being given credit for the performance of a replacement-level-kind of player.