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Friday, December 30, 2011
Jack Morris is Brad Radke?
Yes, according to Jaffe, and yes according to rWAR, though fWAR has Morris at 57 wins and Radke at 46 wins.
Trying to come up with the Fangraphs number fast, we have Radke at 90% of runs allowed and Morris at 97% (or so). Morris has 3800 IP to Radke’s 2400 IP.
So, (1.25 - .90) x 4.5 x 2400/9 / 10 = 42.
And (1.25 - .97) x 4.5 x 3800/9 / 10 = 53.
That basically explains Fangraphs’ position.
(The 1.25 is the replacement level, the 4.5 is RA9 for league, the /9 is to turn innings into games and /10 is to convert runs to wins.)
What you, as the reader, has to do is decide:
1. What’s the replacement level? If you really like Morris, you’re going to put that 1.25 up to 1.30 or 1.35 or something
2. What is the performance level? If you like Morris, you’ll figure out how to put that 97% of league average down to 95% or something, and you’ll bring Radke up from 90% to 92% or something.
Then you plug in the numbers and ACCEPT THE RESULTS.
Oh, and of course, you have to figure out how to weight the various post-season starts, given Morris extra credit for his Twins post-season and much less credit for his Jays post-season. (And of course, apply the same process to Smoltz, Schilling, and Hershiser.)