from Amazon
Friday, June 24, 2011
Is there such a thing as a sure-hit?
Imagine the field is marked at minus 45 degrees (3B line) to plus 45 degrees (1B line), with 0 degrees at the 2B bag. The typical SS would be set at minus 17 degrees for the typical play.
Now, suppose the SS, for this particular play, is positioned at minus 9 degrees (halfway between where he normally plays and the 2B bag). The hitter, for this particular play hits the ball at minus 22 degrees. As a result, it results in a hit, and there was no chance of the SS getting the ball. And that’s because he was positioned at minus 9 degrees.
But, had he positioned at minus 17 degrees, he would have had a great chance at an out.
Let’s say most shortstops would have positioned themselves at minus 19 degrees for this particular batter. They would have had a sure-out.
So, my questions:
1. Do we want to call this batted ball a sure-hit (because we presume where the fielder actually was positioned).
2. Do we want to call this batted ball a probable out (because we presume where the fielder is typically positioned).
3. Do we want to call this batted ball a sure-out (because we presume where the fielder should have been positioned).
Big thanks to Greg for clarifying this important point.