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Friday, September 26, 2008
Is Ichiro a Superstar?
Depends on your definition of “superstar” of course. Then again, no matter what the definition, we know that Pujols is and Bloomquist is not, so that does not necessarily preclude a discussion or an analysis.
There is a discussion on Primer about whether he is or is not. Other than your definition of superstar, it is a fairly objective question. In my camp, it ain’t even close. Not only is he not a superstar, but he is not a star, or even a very good player. I am talking current projection-wise of course.
Defense (UZR)
This year in 62 games of data I have, he was a total of -8 runs, compared to an average CF over the last 5 years. That is -19 per 150. In 07, he was -15 in 157 games, or -14 per 150.
06 +1 (per 150) in RF
05 0
04 -1
Regardless of his reputation or even of the Fan Scouting Report, I cannot responsibly call him more than, say, plus a half win in RF or -.5 wins in CF. And that is being generous, at least as far as UZR is concerned. Let’s look at his other numbers:
Offense
Here are his lwts for the last 4 seasons. Keep in mind that I include ROE’s (of which he gets a lot) as a plus, but that I have a lesser value for an infield single (non-bunt), of which he also gets a lot. I also give players credit for ground ball and fly ball outs, depending upon their batting hand.
08 3.1 (per 150)
07 11.9
06 7.5
05 2.1
Not a whole lot there I am afraid. Lots and lots of players have equal or better offensive value.
Arm (lwts per 150)
08 ??
07 +1 (matched against all CF)
06 1.5 (matched against all RF)
05 -1.1
Nothing there at all, again, despite his reputation for having a great arm.’
Baserunning (runs per 150)
08 ??
07 +4.5
06 +.9
05 +2.3
A very good baserunner, obviously, but good baserunners a superstar does not make, I am afraid.
SB/CS (runs per 150)
08 +9
07 +2.7
06 +5.9
05 +2.2
Nice, but still no cigar.
Roughly, take those numbers and turn them into a projection (very roughly), and you get .5 win for his bat, .5 win in RF for his glove, nothing for his arm, and .5 win for his baserunning.
That is a total of 1.5 wins, as a RF’er. The average RF’er is between 1 and 1.5 wins. So Ichiro is a little above an average player.
Superstar? Not even close.
Star? No.
Average player? About.
Would anyone believe that? A few I would hope. Add him to the short list of players who are so overvalued it ain’t even funny. Manny, Jeter, and Ichiro. Probably Griffey a few years ago (now everyone knows he stinks). Maybe Carlos Lee.