from Amazon
Monday, August 24, 2009
Is elevating a starting pitcher’s pitch count a GOOD thing?
You hear all the time about how if a team can be patient and cause a starting pitcher to have a high pitch count, that it is a good thing (for the batting team). Or in general, if the starting pitcher has a high pitch count and the bullpen has to come in early, that it is a bad thing for the pitching team.
I have always wondered if these are true, and I am not sure that they are.
What if you have an average or worse starter on the mound? And roughly half of all starters fit that bill. With what we know about how much poorer pitchers do as they cycle through the order and with what we know about how much better relievers are than starters (at least partially because they usually don’t face the lineup more than once), maybe getting the starter out of the game early is NOT a good thing for the other team. Not to mention the fact that once the relievers start coming in, the pitching team’s manager can attempt to get the platoon as much as possible.
But what about the fact that the pen gets used more often and thus gets fatigued? Why do we assume that they are going to get fatigued? Is there any evidence that a bullpen gets fatigued and therefore pitches worse when they have to throw 3 1/2 innings a game rather than 3 (or 3.2 rather than 3 or whatever it is)? I have never seen any. Maybe bullpens don’t pitch enough right now. I don’t think we know what the optimal number of innings per game or per season for a bullpen is. I don’t think we have any idea.
Plus, what if the bullpen usage with starters coming out early is not optimal, but what you lose from the pen is more than made up for by relievers pitching better than starters, other than the top starters of course? And why can’t you just replace your fatigued back of pen relievers with similar ones from your minor league system? The typical bullpen includes a couple of replacement pitchers anyway.
What say you guys?