from Amazon
Monday, April 04, 2011
Intentionally dropping a foul ball
Michael does a super job of analyzing the situation here.
The situation is this: in the top of the last inning, the score is tied, there are no outs, and the runners are on 1B and 2B. The batter has a 1-2 count with the ball in the air. Do you intentionally drop the ball, keeping the batter at the plate at 1-2, and runners at 1B and 2B. Or, do you catch the ball, let the runners go to 2B and 3B, and a new batter at the plate?
This is exactly what win expectancy is designed to answer. Michael starts with the basic win expectancy data, and then looks to try to make adjustments.
The end result is that the fielder made a defensible and gutsy call to not catch the ball.