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Tuesday, October 24, 2006
Ichiro Cromartie
Mike Green takes a look at Ichiro for the Hall Of Fame, over at Batter’s Box.
There are two ways to look at the HOF, so let’s take a look at each one.
The first way is “how to account for missing years”, be it war years, injuries, or contractual obligations in inferior leagues.
Warren Cromartie is my idea of an ordinary MLB player from the 70s and 80s. He left when he was 29 to play in Japan, where he put up .321 / .372 / .558. Ichiro on the other hand left Japan when he was 27, where he put up .353 / .421 / .522. They were, in Japan, in the same ballpark in terms of hiting. Ichiro of course outshines as a runner and fielder.
In Japan, Ichiro had 4000 PA, in 7 years. In MLB, Cromartie had 4000 PA, in 7 years (excluding his return at age 37).
Here therefore is Ichiro Cromartie, adding up Cro’s MLB stats with Ichiro’s MLB stats:
Hits: 2458, with 24% as extra bases
.306 / .355 / .420
(Don’t forget, this is half 1970s/80s and half 2000s, so this is above average for a hitter, and probably around average for an OF.)
In less than three seasons, Ichiro Cromartie will get to 3000 hits. He’s even got a chance at 4000 hits.
He also has stellar fielding and running.
The second way to look at it is “what’s his true talent level?”. We don’t necessarily care what he accomplished, but rather, how good was he? Sandy Koufax is a guy who had a string of seasons that would not have been put up by an ordinary schmoe. Ron Guidry, David Cone, Bret Saberhagen *could* have done what Koufax did. That is, the talent level of these pitchers could have produced a career like Koufax. Therefore, while Koufax was certainly not an average pitcher, perhaps he was a Guidry/Cone quality pitcher, but that his shortened career prevents us from realizing if he could have been Pedro/Clemens/Maddux/Johnson.
Or look at Ted Williams. If he retired after 7 years, he may have been considered one of the greatest hitters of all time, that his first 5000 PA sealed his fate, and the next 5000 PA just added a bit too it. His career through age-29, and his career post-age 30 are very similar. We could do something similar with Frank Thomas, and his through age-29 career was great, one of the best ever. His post age-30 career, while excellent, doesn’t compare. However, it doesn’t diminish his candidacy for HOF as of age 29. He’d have to have a horrible end-of-career for us to believe that his true talent through age-29 was not a good estimate.
So, back to Ichiro. How certain are we that the Ichiro’s performance in MLB well-represents his true talent?
All we really have to do is perform an old Bill James trick, and ask the question: “how certain are we that an 80%/AAA player did not put these hitting numbers?”. If you want to increase the requirement to 100%, feel free.
Go.