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Thursday, October 15, 2009
I am going to tell you why managers like Francona do dumb things like IBB Hunter…
It is because managers want to think that they have a greater influence on the game than they do or at least should. And they want to look like geniuses. Most of the time when they do something dumb, like Francona walking Hunter, they are going to come out smelling like a rose. Paps is going to get Vladdy out 70% of the time. That means that 70% of the time, Francona is going to look like a genius. The 30% of the time it doesn’t work, he knows that lots of people are going to blame Papelbon and not him (Francona).
If Francona doesn’t do anything and he lets Papelbon pitch to Hunter, he (Francona) gets no shot at looking like a genius. If Hunter gets a hit, Francona gets blamed for not walking him - after all, he was 3-5 against Paps in the past. If he gets him out, it is on Paps, and Francona gets no credit whatsoever (for doing the right thing).
Despite what they say, managers are all about trying to look like they had a hand in their team winning and avoiding looking like a goat as much as possible. I’m sorry to say it, but that is the way it is.
I am being a little hyperbolic, but I truly believe that to be the case to some extent. That is why some managers bunt so often. If they don’t bunt, and the batter makes out, which will happen 70% of the time, they get criticized for not bunting. If they call for the bunt and the batter is not successful (which is why the bunt is often not correct - because the batter is not going to be successful enough), it is because the batter screwed up. Bunting is the perfect risk-averse strategy from the standpoint of the manager looking bad.
And of course it all boils down to ignorance and upper-level management. If you educate your manager and demand and reward him for doing the correct things, regardless of the outcome, he will be more likely to do so (do the correct thing). If you don’t, then his actions will be largely governed by what is standard human nature - a fear of looking bad and a desire to be perceived as a hero rather than a goat.