THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Monday, June 09, 2008

How well can we project team defense and other UZR data…

I am going to present each team’s total UZR so far in 2008 along with what I would have projected given each player’s number of games played:

Runs are total runs saved or cost, as of Saturday, June 7.  They are not “per 150 games.” The first column for each team is 2008 UZR and the second column is what I would have projected given each player’s number of games played and my pre-season UZR projections for each player.

One thing you can do with these numbers, assuming that pitchers have no influence on them, is to mentally (or physically, I guess) adjust each team’s ERA to the tune of around .5 run per 30 UZR runs.  As you can see from the team UZR’s, they have a significant effect on team ERA.  For example, when we say that SEA’s or TEX’ pitching is bad, it is not really thatbad.  For example, if we adjust for UZR, TEX goes from last in the AL in ERA to 10th, and SEA goes from 12th to 9th.  Similarly, TOR goes from 3rd in the AL to 8th, and the CWS go from 1st to 3rd.

ARI -4 -3
ATL -2 -2
CHN 18 6
CIN -19 -4
COL 5 2
FLO -12 -28
HOU 14 -15
LAN -9 -4
MIL -15 -12
NYN -2 10
PHI 17 6
PIT -20 -3
SDN 32 10
SLN 24 6
SFN -13 6
WAS -8 -8

ALA 24 -2
BAL -12 3
BOS -7 -1
CHA 15 11
CLE -5 9
DET -7 4
KCA 26 12
MIN -20 2
NYA -11 -8
OAK 6 12
SEA -32 -11
TBA 22 1
TEX -38 -10
TOR 35 1

The Pearson correlation coefficient ("r") between actual and projected is .474, which seems a little weak, but I am not sure.  For individual players, it should be around .5 for one full year to another full year, I think.

For teams with actual UZR’s between 0 and -10, the projected is +1.  For -10 to -20, it is -15 actual and -6 projected.  For less than -20, it is -35 and -10.  For 0 to +10, it is +6, +7.  For 11 to 20, it is +16, +2.  For greater than +20, it is +26, +5.

Anyway, here are the best and worst at each position, minimum of 30 games:  The UZR number is “per 150 games,” so take it with a grain of salt especially for those players who are closer to 30 games played than 60.

1B

Best

Pujols 26
Berkman 20
Youk 16
Kotchman 15
Votto 14

Worst

Jacobs -35
Garko -22
Sexson -20
M Cabrera -19
Fielder -16
Delgado -15

2B

Best

Ellis 28
Kennedy 23
Phillips 22
Pedroia 21
Uribe 19
Castillo 17

Worst

Harris -21
K Johnson -18
F Lopez -18
Kinsler -15
Uggla -14
Kent -13
Matsui -13
B Roberts -13

SS

Best

O Cabrera 36
Escobar 32
Tejada 24
Pena 22

Worst

Betancourt -31
Eckstein -21
Crosby -21
Young -20
Lugo -18

(Jeter) -10

3B

Best

Rolen 43
A-Rod 17
Beltre 15
Longoria 11
Glaus 9
C Jones 9

Worst

Cantu -31
Lamb -25
R Vazquez -24
Hall -20
C Guillen -14

LF

Best

McAnulty 34
Crawford 29
Duncan 28
G Anderson 20
Payton 20
Diaz 20

Worst

Cust -28
Dunn -22
Manny -21
Quentin -20
Ibanez -20

CF

Best

Cameron 40
Amezaga 31
Victorino 30
A Rios 29
C Gomez 28
Beltran 26
M Cabrera 24

Worst

Edmonds -38
J Hamilton -37
V Wells -31
Kotsay -24
A Jones -20

RF

Best

F Gutierrez 51
B GIles 35
T Buck 34
Teahan 29
M Ordonez 22
Wilkerson 20

Worst

Hawpe -47
Abreu -35
Francouer -34
Griffey -31
Upton -25
Cuddyer -23
Drew -23