from Amazon
Wednesday, July 09, 2008
How much control do pitchers REALLY have?
I don’t have the answer, but I have the process. I emailed this to someone else, and I’ll just repost it in its entirety:
Here’s a little trick to figure out how accurate are pitchers with their pitches: look at all 3-0 counts, where the batter is a pitcher (and preferably a man on 1B)
In this situation a pitcher would be out of his mind to throw anything other than a pitch down the middle. Why in the world would he try to walk such a batter, or even tempt fate? He’s throwing it down the middle, and he’s almost certainly throwing him a fastball. And, the pitcher/batter is almost certainly taking as well.
I will guess that Maddux/Moyer/Schilling will still walk the batter 10% of the time, while your Dempsters and other throwers (not pitchers) will walk this batter at least 25% of the time, if not over 30%.