from Amazon
Tuesday, December 27, 2011
Poz’s implicit rule of thumb for HOF
His guys and explanations:
Larkin, Trammell
Raines,Walker
Edgar, Bagwell, McGwire, Murphy
He went for seven of the top eight in WAR on the ballot, swapping out Palmeiro for Dale Murphy. He shamelessly considers Murphy his pet project, and I don’t mind that. He’s got that Saberhagen / Guidry / Cone, high peak, short career to him. And his rejection of Palmeiro:
He compiled huge numbers (3,020 hits, 569 homers) in a huge numbers era, but in my opinion he was never a great player — he only twice finished in the Top 10 in WAR, and never higher than fifth.
It’s interesting if you compare Palmeiro to Raines, and sort them by highest WAR. Best WAR: 7.5 for one, and 7.4 for the other. 2nd highest WAR: 6.8 for one, and 6.2 for the other. Third-highest: 6.0 for both. 4th highest: 5.5 and 5.7. It’s at that point that Palmeiro loses it.
Poz has basically drawn the line in the sand that a “high WAR” player needs at least 5 WAR. Raines has six of those, and Palmeiro has four. Dale Murphy also has six of those (and his drop to his 7th highest WAR season is a doozy: only 2.9 WAR).
Alan Trammell has 7, Barry Larkin has 7, Edgar has 9, Bagwell has 9, McGwire has 7. That seems to be his line. If you have at least 6 seasons of at least 5.0 WAR, you’re a great candidate for the Hall. If you have at most 4, then, eh.
Which is fine. But look at Larry Walker: 4 seasons of at least 5 WAR, just like Palmeiro. Four seasons of 4.0 to 4.9 WAR… just like Palmeiro. Another six seasons of 2.0 to 3.9 WAR… just like Palmeiro. Three seasons of 1.0 to 1.9 WAR… just like Palmeiro.
If you add up all those 17 seasons, Larry Walker has 67 WAR and Palmeiro has 66. The main difference is that Larry Walker did all that with over 3000 fewer plate appearances. In every one of those 17 seasons, Palmeiro was a full-time player, where he had at least 600 PA every season, except for the 1994 reduced-season (where his 492 plate appearances was done in 111 of his team’s 112 games). Larry Walker on the other hand exceeded 600 PA only one season (though we should make a similar allowance for 1994).
That therefore seems to be the Poz implicit rule:
- at least six seasons of 5 WAR (I’ll call that the Guy Lafleur rule)
- or at least eight seasons of 4 WAR, but done in limited playing time (awesome when actually on the field)
It’s a good implicit rule of thumb.