from Amazon
Wednesday, November 29, 2006
Hitting by Count
Using Tom Tippett data, here is the wOBA, BABIP, and the big three, by count, excluding IBB:
Count wOBA BABIP AVG OBP SPC PA At 3-0 0.700 0.343 0.401 0.946 0.789 3,113 At 3-1 0.564 0.307 0.347 0.681 0.604 9,013 At 2-0 0.405 0.299 0.343 0.343 0.622 4,882 At 3-2 0.403 0.303 0.230 0.470 0.380 22,183 At 1-0 0.388 0.310 0.342 0.342 0.574 13,604 At 0-0 0.381 0.311 0.341 0.341 0.555 21,312 At 2-1 0.375 0.301 0.332 0.332 0.551 10,118 At 1-1 0.362 0.301 0.328 0.328 0.522 15,772 At 0-1 0.346 0.299 0.321 0.321 0.487 16,002 At 2-2 0.214 0.288 0.195 0.195 0.308 22,761 At 1-2 0.188 0.282 0.177 0.177 0.260 23,762 At 0-2 0.177 0.282 0.167 0.167 0.243 13,198
As you can see, a huge difference in BABIP on 3-0 counts and 2-strike counts.
More importantly in most cases however are “pass-through” counts, which I’ll present here:
Through Count wOBA BABIP AVG OBP SPC PA Through 3-0 0.570 0.313 0.296 0.725 0.496 8,131 Through 3-1 0.490 0.303 0.281 0.587 0.475 16,168 Through 2-0 0.443 0.301 0.290 0.494 0.493 25,514 Through 3-2 0.403 0.303 0.230 0.470 0.380 22,183 Through 2-1 0.372 0.296 0.262 0.397 0.433 37,414 Through 1-0 0.371 0.300 0.280 0.382 0.459 72,841 Through 0-0 0.332 0.299 0.268 0.328 0.430 175,638 Through 1-1 0.314 0.295 0.248 0.315 0.396 68,748 Through 2-2 0.290 0.294 0.207 0.304 0.333 37,782 Through 0-1 0.283 0.294 0.239 0.276 0.372 81,511 Through 1-2 0.237 0.289 0.191 0.237 0.294 45,390 Through 0-2 0.212 0.287 0.183 0.207 0.275 30,514
If we look at the “at 2-0”, we see the wOBA is .405, which is excellent. But, the “through 2-0” is .443, and this is Pujols-like. The “through” counts also capture what happens if the PA doesn’t end at the 2-0 count, meaning that you are still going to be in a hitter’s count.
To show you how incredible Pujols and the old-Bonds are as hitters, if you give an average hitter an automatic 2-0 count, that’s the same thing as starting Pujols at an 0-0 count. That’s how much of an advantage they have.