THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Thursday, July 12, 2007

Historical Win Probability Numbers

Thanks to Studes, I see that Jeff Sagarin has applied the Mills Brothers’ Player Win Average to the Retrosheet years, like here:
http://www.kiva.net/~jsagarin/mills/nl1987.htm

You can actually try to calculate Leverage Index too.  For example, Steve Bedrosian had about 50,000 advancement points in 385 situations, or 130 points per situation.  If you take say Mike Scott, he had 62 points per situation.  Presuming that 60-65 is the standard number, then we can see that Bedrosian had an LI of around 2.0.