from Amazon
Wednesday, November 10, 2010
Historical marginal $ per marginal win
Someone asked me for this, and I realized that I’ve never really shown it. Using data compiled by Rodney Fort, I derived it below. Let me read that first line:
In 2009, the minimum salary was 400,000$, which if you had 30 players on the payroll means you have to pay 12 million$. The average team payroll was over 88 million$, meaning that the payroll above the minimum is over 76 million$. The number of wins above the minimum (which I treat it as a .300 win%) is 32.4 wins (which is constant every year). So, I simply take marginal payroll divided by marginal wins to give me 2.36 MM$ per win (column 2).
A free agent win is close to 2 times that average being paid (don’t forget, the average includes all the slave and arb players). You can double everything in column 2 to get close to free agent wins. Note that Fangraphs, Baseball-Reference, and Baseball Prospectus all use a different level for the minimum win% (something like .250 for BPro, .280 for Fangraphs, and .320 for B-R, so you need to modify that column, which will affect column 2).
Year $/win Min Salary Min Payroll Avg Payroll Marginal Payroll Marginal Wins
2009 2.36 $400,000 $12,000,000 $88,513,240 $76,513,240 32.4
2008 2.40 $390,000 $11,700,000 $89,547,849 $77,847,849 32.4
2007 2.20 $380,000 $11,400,000 $82,633,133 $71,233,133 32.4
2006 2.09 $327,000 $9,810,000 $77,556,956 $67,746,956 32.4
2005 1.96 $316,000 $9,480,000 $73,062,963 $63,582,963 32.4
2004 1.85 $300,000 $9,000,000 $69,042,265 $60,042,265 32.4
2003 1.91 $300,000 $9,000,000 $70,938,804 $61,938,804 32.4
2002 1.90 $200,000 $6,000,000 $67,489,317 $61,489,317 32.4
2001 1.83 $200,000 $6,000,000 $65,428,127 $59,428,127 32.4
2000 1.54 $200,000 $6,000,000 $55,859,404 $49,859,404 32.4
1999 1.30 $200,000 $6,000,000 $48,164,181 $42,164,181 32.4
1998 1.09 $170,000 $5,100,000 $40,343,644 $35,243,644 32.4
1997 1.03 $150,000 $4,500,000 $38,011,906 $33,511,906 32.4
1996 0.89 $109,000 $3,270,000 $31,990,030 $28,720,030 32.4
1995 0.87 $109,000 $3,270,000 $31,502,705 $28,232,705 32.4
1994 0.87 $109,000 $3,270,000 $31,593,688 $28,323,688 32.4
1993 0.84 $109,000 $3,270,000 $30,595,721 $27,325,721 32.4
1992 0.83 $109,000 $3,270,000 $30,149,844 $26,879,844 32.4
1991 0.66 $100,000 $3,000,000 $24,231,172 $21,231,172 32.4
1990 0.45 $100,000 $3,000,000 $17,470,189 $14,470,189 32.4
1989 0.35 $68,000 $2,040,000 $13,496,818 $11,456,818 32.4
1988 0.29 $62,500 $1,875,000 $11,339,223 $9,464,223 32.4
(Click on the thread header to see all the data that is covered.)